Trumps local ties notwithstanding, Clinton is likely to run up her numbers here in the northernmost part of the South Florida region. A few counties in America are known as the "bellwether counties": Those locations that always end up voting for the candidate who ultimately wins in the presidential election. In at least three of the past four elections, county differed . Copyright 2023 HotAir.com/Salem Media. To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period. Watch this populous county, home to Manchester. This well-educated, high-income and increasingly diverse D.C. exurb (Asians and Latinos togther make up a third of this county) went for Obama twice and roughly reflected the statewide margin. Donald Trump is highly unlikely to win here -- Democrats have a big voter registration advantage in this county where Trump owns one of his many homes. She says that previously, "when there was a presidential election, people are watching, paying attention, and as soon as the president is elected, they forget [about politics] until it's election time again". 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention), Latest voter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 112,113Democrats: 109,965Republicans: 100,540Libertarian: 3,009. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. Maricopa (home to Phoenix) is the most populous county in the state by far 60 percent of voters live here. Team up with others in your region, and help out by Other counties to watch: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade are both places where Clinton has to drive up the score. The fact that there are fewer swing counties means that there are fewer potential bellwether counties. "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. "Especially considering there's a lot of things that has been done that don't get reported at all.". In 2008, Obama received69,498,516 votes, per the Federal Election Commission. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. Just how big is it? Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. Profiled by BBC News weeks before the 2020 election, locals said voters' political identities weren't always defined in strict party terms and that people would regularly pivot between parties from one election cycle to the next. Other counties to watch: Perhaps no state more starkly displays the broader rural-urban divide in this country than Virginia. Texas (38 electoral votes) - Likely Republican, Bellwether: Tarrant (Ft. Worth, Arlington). Third, it lists the fractionof bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. It went for Romney 54 to 44 percent, nearly reflecting the overall margin. They're just facts about the vote. It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelors degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide. Her running mate Tim Kaine the former Richmond mayor and Virginia governor could make a difference here, Latest voter registration totals: 230,236No party registration, Loudoun County flipped from red to blue in 2008, when Barack Obama won it and held it in 2012. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 480,926Republicans, 323,870Unaffiliated: 229,298Others: 65,281. As weve seen in the past two presidential elections, bellwether streaks can be suddenly ended thanks to Americas continually evolving political and demographic trends. The second-most populous county in the state, northern Nevadas Washoe County is home to Reno. Key bellwether counties in the swingiest states appeared during the 2016 and 2018 cycles that can help serve as a guide for 2020. Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. But what if we told you that only 1 of these 22 counties voted for Biden in 2020? | AP Photo, By Darren Samuelsohn, Katie Glueck, Kyle Cheney and Daniel Strauss. ), Fact check: Biden won the most total votes and the fewest total counties of any president-elect. The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. In 2020, a single county in the setkept its perfect recordby tallying a win for Biden. But along with the states other urbanized counties, Forsyth has moved to the left, twice backing Barack Obama. Nobody forgot about politics.". The same can be said for the three states listed in the meme. (It will at least show a trend away from the Republican party that would help make more sense of this situation. 1 County 61947 People 2012 Predicting since One county. Still, the key for Democrats is Salt Lake, which gave Obama more than half his statewide vote there. Ron Elving . Allegheny (Pittsburgh) is also key for Democrats. Clinton needs to be closer to Obama's 57 percent in 2008 than his 55 percent in 2012. The county narrowly voted for Bush in 2000 but has gone Democratic in the three presidential elections since then, though never by more than 52 percent. These counties were geographically clustered in the Midwest and in the Northeast. Whether or not these less diverse, industry-dependent communities can regain their bellwether status in four years' time remains to be seen. Below are 10 bellwether counties that could give signs as to how the electorate feels this cycle and in future races. As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. It almost became religious.". Increased political polarization is another reason why fewer counties are consistently indicative of presidential results in recent years. More than one-in-four votes cast for Obama and Romney in 2012 came from Hillsborough. Wilkes-Barres Luzerne County is traditionally Democratic territory in northeastern Pennsylvania but its also an aging, working-class county where Trumps message is resonating. Until this year. Bonus points if you also keep track of the trends from 2016 to 2020. Here's why. It's also worth noting that some voters "split their tickets" between parties voting for Biden but also for Republicans in Congress, for example. When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there is 1 county that has a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. "Democrats have really not done anything for the farmers They've totally ignored the rural community. But that changed in 2016 when Trump made huge gains with white voters without a college degree. None of them impacts the legitimacy of the presidential election. We tried to pick counties that had a large enough population to matter some or if they just had a knack for picking that statewide winner. A county that voted for the winning party in 1992 (Democrat), 2000 (Republican), 2008 (Democrat) and 2016 (Republican), irrespective of how they voted at the other elections. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up Bellwether: Watauga In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. It is easy to gloss over this. But that's no longer the case. Instead, you can Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel which has more recent updates. In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points . We sorted the counties from highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (in the 2008 election). The fourth-largest county in the state, its home to the Green Bay Packers, which are a huge economic engine. Contributors wanted (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) It has a slightly higher Hispanic population than Jefferson County 19 percent, according to the Census which makes it an uphill challenge for Donald Trump. It voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama. Of course, bellwethers are bellwethers until they aren't. Cable news loves to point to Vigo County, Indiana on election night coverage because Indiana is one of the first two states to close its polls and it has . our Gitlab account where you can "This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. Take the time to ponder and realize that this is no mean feat! Trump also needs to overperform in Macomb, another Detroit suburb, which narrowly went for Obama in 2012. But it's also not unprecedented. Ryan Matsumoto is a contributing analyst for Inside Elections. Their emotions and decision making process are real. Multiple factors, including higher turnout and population growth, contributed to the fact that both Biden and Trump totaledmore votes than Obama. Clinton will win Democratic Clark County, the states population hub and home to Las Vegas. Stephen Starr is an Irish journalist and author who reported from the Middle East for a decade before moving to Ohio in 2018. Cincinnati is kind of considered a little bit of an island off the rest of Ohio. We have looked at every imaginable scenario to build a case for the Democrat party winning the 2020 election based upon how our trusted counties voted. Salt Lake City elected its first lesbian mayor this year, and Obama actually won Salt Lake County by a few hundred votes in 2008. Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment. The statistics also are not indicative of electoral fraud. Latest voter registration totals: Unaffiliated: 49,026Democrats: 40,563Republicans: 35,146. "It wasn't part of his strategy.". used to vote more like the country as a whole, huge gains with white voters without a college degree, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. At the presidential level, Republicans havent won Oakland County since 1992, though George W. Bush twice came very close. HereIsTheEvidence.com and ElectionEvidence.com have compiled detailed databases of hundreds of items of election fraud evidence, by state. In Valencia County, New Mexico, which had correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1952, Mr Trump won by 10 points; in Indiana's Vigo County, which backed every president bar two since 1888, he prevailed by 15 points. Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . If they are tipping to Clinton, it's over. An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections, 1980-2016 Daniel Zimny-Schmitt1, Michael C. Harris2 1. By Dasha Burns, Antonia Hylton, Shaquille Brewster and Benjy Sarlin. Lets quickly recap what we have established so far: In this post we will further relax the constraint by analyzing counties that voted Democrat in 2008 and Republican in 2016 only; that is, the switch counties in the most recent elections. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. What science tells us about the afterlife. One of the big four suburban collar counties ringing Philadelphia and the fourth-most populous county in the state Bucks is always competitive. Latest voter registration totals: 216,082No party registration. "We had to quietly move our parade," she says. Dont simply gloss over this. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-44%. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. Somehow we jumped from 22 to 1 county in one election cycle and we are supposed to believe that is normal? Other counties to watch: Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson), Democrats have to drive up big margins in Las Vegas, something they have lots of experience doing. Will they vote for the winner in 2016? That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! How many of these 150 switch counties voted Democrat in 2020? Found an error on our site? If Clinton is getting in the mid-to-high 30s there, rather than the high 20s, she might have a shot at improving her statewide total enough to beat Trump and McMullin. Of the 19 counties that had a perfect record between 1980 and 2016, all but one voted to reelect President Donald Trump, who lost to Joe Biden in both the national popular vote and in nearly. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: List of election bellwether counties in the United States. On a cold, wind-swept November afternoon two weeks after election day, the crowds that thronged the beaches of Ottawa County all summer long are but a distant memory. Click on the relevant state then look for the county name.). Both Clinton and Trump need to turn out their bases in Fulton (Atlanta). Second, the meme includes the number of counties each candidate won Obama at 873, Trump at 2,497 and Biden at 477. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. Mike Pence, could marshal his supporters to cross the border and provide support. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. Furthermore, consider the fact that bellwethers dont just have a random 50% chance at winning we should expect them to have a better than 50% chance of getting it right. [How The Frost Belt And Sun Belt Illustrate The Complexity Of Americas Urban-Rural Divide]. "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". With each new section we relaxed the constraint, to include the most friendly Democrat voting counties in the country (based on the 2008 election). 5. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. The magnitude of the gap (or difference) is an indicator of the strength of the change in sentiment. November 8, 2016 9:29 AM ET. The idea being these counties are good at sensing a change of sentiment and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. Outstanding. Read about our approach to external linking. Go on, look them up! In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. Ottawa County accurately predicted every president since 1964 until 2020, The Ottawa County commissioner says people are happy with Trump's accomplishments, Sunrise at East Harbor State Park, Ottawa County, Ohio, Minority voters who changed their minds about Trump, Chris Rock jokes about Oscars slap in Netflix show, Harry: I always felt different to rest of family, Everything Everywhere wins big ahead of Oscars, PM to end asylum claims from small boat arrivals, Street fighting in Bakhmut but Russia not in control, US-made cheese can be called 'gruyere' - court. Other counties to watch: Denver suburbs Adams, Arapahoe, Jefferson. "End of day, the solution is complicated but the problem is very simple," wrote a user who shared the meme on Instagram. Here is a look at the bellwether counties for the 2020 presidential race. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. From his tweet: From 1984 through 2016, spanning presidential elections, seventeen US counties in several states ad voted for the winning presidential candidate in an astounding 148 of 153 times including 100% five times for five different presidents: Advertisement - story continues below 1984 Reagan 1996 Clinton 2000 Bush 2012 Obama 2016 Trump (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). Along with neighboring Pinellas County (St. Petersburg), the two counties include nearly a half-million registered Republicans. The county also features a diverse array of industries, from dairy farms and small manufacturers to major health-care companies. Florida (29 electoral votes) - Toss-up. Published Nov. 8, 2016 at 5:30 a.m. These counties arent the only ones that matter most swing states have a handful of critical counties, not just one or two but these 25 stand out, either for their voting history, population size or traditional impact on swing-state election results. Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. It's happened before. Keep in mind that if we started the attrition from the 1980 election, there would still be 19 counties standing after the 2016 election. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 55%-43%. The American Voter's Alliance provides a great national overview with many reports, videos and detailed legal submissions. Republicans are bullish that the suburban county will stay in their column this time, in part because of frustration with Washington. Kerry Sheridan/AFP/Getty Images Really stop reading. This Gulf Coast county is home to Tampa and has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 1960. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. So the question is, how many of them switched back to the Democrat party in 2020? Trump won Luzerne County by nearly 20 points in 2016, outperforming Romney . So, even though they got it wrong in 2020, it is still worth figuring out how much they got it wrong by. Suggest an improvement, report an issue, Home to Tipton (population 3,199), Cedar has gone with the winner of every presidential and Senate race since 1992. Republicans have a voter registration advantage here but in recent presidential elections, its had consistently tight margins: In 2012 Obama won it by less than 4,000 votes. So, for our purposes, a swing county would have voted as follows: There are 80 such counties. Only one of them, Washington state's Clallam County, backed. It's a largely rural area of 40,000 residents that's home to a nuclear power plant, a sprawling US National Guard training facility and islands that the British Royal Navy battled for and lost during the War of 1812. This county voted with the popular vote each time. who in 2016 won Caswell and other rural counties in North Carolina by tapping those feelings of abandonment. Obeng (2016) was similarly skeptical, noting that bellwethers run the risk of producing models that explain what has happened but cannot predict the future. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. Scott Walker all three times his name appeared on the ballot. For instance, Washington County, Maine the median bellwether county in terms of its share thats non-Hispanic white is 89 percent non-Hispanic white, which is much higher than the overall U.S. population that identifies as such (60 percent). Also key is Larimer (Fort Collins). Watauga has gone for the winner statewide in each of the last three presidential elections and three Senate races since 2008. A Trump win is probably out of the question in a county thats home to Des Moines and the state capitol -- he finished third here in the caucuses behind first-place finisher Rubio and runner-up Cruz -- but he will go a long way toward carrying the state if he can keep it close. They simply vote on merit. As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. Subscribe to breaking updates Other counties to watch: Wake, in the heart of the Research Triangle, used to be considered a swing county. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. In Westmoreland County, Virginia - a small, rural community south of Washington DC that's failed to be a bellwether only twice since 1928, and is home to twice the number of African Americans than the national average - he beat Mr Biden by 16 points. 03:30. For Trump to win, he has to carry this populous Detroit suburb. Watch Hampton City. (The highest value being again 66.1%). Some of the same messages that are going to work in Northeastern Ohio are maybe not going to work as well down here, said county GOP Chairman Alex Triantafilou. This was important for candidates since the presidential candidate's campaign would normally foot the bill. "I said: 'I'm the chair of the Democratic Party,' and the gentleman looked at me and said: 'Oh, the enemy.'". Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. Valencia County is home to a string of towns along the banks of the Rio Grande river in an otherwise largely arid stretch of desert south of Albuquerque. Here are the counties that consistently voted more than 50% for the winning party since the 2000 election: To make things a little more interesting we will relax the constraints a little to include modern bellwether counties, that is, counties that have voted for the winning candidate since 1992. There are numerous theories about why it happened in 2020. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. Read about our approach to external linking. Texas likely isn't going Democratic, so we aren't including this in one of our 13 counties since it's less likely to decide the outcome of the presidential election. (Sorry, not sorry.) Most bellwether counties were slightly Democratic-leaning in 2008 and Republican leaning in 2012. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention) . Ottawa County wasn't the only swing county to get the outcome wrong this time around. That'sanother reason results of the contests might not have lined up. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 57%-41% - 2008: McCain 55%-44%. They have a rare and unique property of having a perfect demographic mix that allows them to vote for either party based on the merits of each election, and always get it right. Racine County, which features a significant Hispanic and African American population, is the only competitive county bordering Milwaukee Ozaukee, Waukesha and Washington counties are reliably Republican. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Cruz2012: Obama 53%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 101,967Republicans: 75,145Unaffiliated:65,344Libertarian: 1,022. It requires a lot more than pure luck.). Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 105,724Republicans: 70,060Unaffiliated: 15,141Other: 6,079. Other counties to watch: Clinton has to drive up the margins in counties along the shores of Lake Erie, from Lucas (Toledo) to most notably Cuyahoga (Cleveland). A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. First, what are bellwether counties? Suburban Richmonds Henrico County was once a reliable GOP stronghold it went twice for George W. Bush and backed Bob McDonnell in his 2009 gubernatorial win. Jeff. GOP Chairman Dale Fellows noted that the population has been steadily aging in recent years. This was George W. Bush territory in 2000 and 2004, but Obama brought it back into the Democratic fold in his two elections. Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. Experts say that while traditional bellwether counties are whiter and less educated than the national average, there's no one element that unites them as political oracles. Democrats also have to win big in Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Guilford (Greensboro), Durham and Buncombe (Asheville). It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives.
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